Labor's right may lose control of conference for first time since 1984
It is possible neither the left nor right faction will muster a clear
majority at the national conference, creating kingmakers out of
independent delegates
Party leader Bill Shorten hails from the party’s right faction and will
rely on backing from his own camp. Photograph: Mick Tsikas/AAP
Labor’s right faction is at risk of losing control of the party’s
national conference for the first time since 1984 – a development that
would create a major headache for Bill Shorten.
The ALP is currently in the process of settling the final composition
of the 400 delegates to its mid-year national conference, and factional
chiefs report the numbers are extremely tight.
One senior party source told Guardian Australia it was possible on
current indications that “no one” could control the July conference –
meaning that neither the left nor the right factions could muster a
clear majority – creating kingmakers out of a small handful of
independent delegates without formal factional allegiances.
The party’s right wing has enjoyed and enforced an effective lock on
the national conference since the Hawke-Keating years, allowing various
divisive policy debates to be settled mostly in line with the prevailing
wishes of the party leadership.
The current party leader, Shorten, hails from the party’s right
faction, and will rely on backing from his own camp to minimise
turbulence and political embarrassment at his first national conference
outing as the federal Labor leader.
Whether or not the right can emerge with a working majority depends
on the final resolution of ALP conference delegates from New South Wales
and Victoria – the two biggest blocs.
The
right is confident about its prospects in Victoria, and factional
chiefs are relying on an administrative process in NSW to calibrate the
final numbers. Sixty of the 108 NSW delegates are expected to be
selected centrally and 48 at the local electoral level. But there is a
determined push on from the left to maximise final representation in
NSW.
The shift in the overall factional balance reflects a recent shift in
control of the Queensland branch from the right faction to the left
faction; poor organisation and weak electoral representation in Western
Australia and Tasmania; a breakdown in the organisation of the national
right; and incremental democratisation within the party.
The ALP national conference determines the Labor party’s national
platform, and this particular conference gives the opposition a
springboard into the federal election, which is due in 2016.
But the outing carries significant political risks for Labor, which
has attempted to move past the vicious internal divisions of the
Rudd/Gillard period which ultimately cost the party government in 2013.
Shorten goes into the 2015 national conference facing significant
internal flashpoints which include the vexed issue of party reform and
achieving a more progressive policy platform to regulate the treatment
of asylum seekers. Right sources are concerned the left could push for
the complete unwinding of offshore processing.
Other points of conference controversy are expected to be a binding
vote in favour of marriage equality, and debate about the status of
Palestine.
The left faction is expected to oppose a push from the right to remove the socialist objective from the ALP platform.
Left sources also report significant frustration with Shorten’s
personal agenda on party reform. His proposals are regarded as
insufficiently ambitious.
In addition to the complication of whether or not the right faction
emerges with a working majority for the July conference, there’s a
further wildcard: many of this year’s conference flashpoints are
unlikely to be settled along strict factional lines.
A push to moderate Labor’s hardline policy on unauthorised boat
arrivals will be championed by the left but is also likely to win
support from elements of Labor’s Catholic right.
Any serious Palestine debate is also likely to attract
cross-factional support – with elements of the NSW right joining
left-wingers in being supportive of recognising the state of Palestine.
national conference for the first time since 1984 – a development that
would create a major headache for Bill Shorten.
The ALP is currently in the process of settling the final composition
of the 400 delegates to its mid-year national conference, and factional
chiefs report the numbers are extremely tight.
One senior party source told Guardian Australia it was possible on
current indications that “no one” could control the July conference –
meaning that neither the left nor the right factions could muster a
clear majority – creating kingmakers out of a small handful of
independent delegates without formal factional allegiances.
The party’s right wing has enjoyed and enforced an effective lock on
the national conference since the Hawke-Keating years, allowing various
divisive policy debates to be settled mostly in line with the prevailing
wishes of the party leadership.
The current party leader, Shorten, hails from the party’s right
faction, and will rely on backing from his own camp to minimise
turbulence and political embarrassment at his first national conference
outing as the federal Labor leader.
Whether or not the right can emerge with a working majority depends
on the final resolution of ALP conference delegates from New South Wales
and Victoria – the two biggest blocs.
The
right is confident about its prospects in Victoria, and factional
chiefs are relying on an administrative process in NSW to calibrate the
final numbers. Sixty of the 108 NSW delegates are expected to be
selected centrally and 48 at the local electoral level. But there is a
determined push on from the left to maximise final representation in
NSW.
The shift in the overall factional balance reflects a recent shift in
control of the Queensland branch from the right faction to the left
faction; poor organisation and weak electoral representation in Western
Australia and Tasmania; a breakdown in the organisation of the national
right; and incremental democratisation within the party.
The ALP national conference determines the Labor party’s national
platform, and this particular conference gives the opposition a
springboard into the federal election, which is due in 2016.
But the outing carries significant political risks for Labor, which
has attempted to move past the vicious internal divisions of the
Rudd/Gillard period which ultimately cost the party government in 2013.
Shorten goes into the 2015 national conference facing significant
internal flashpoints which include the vexed issue of party reform and
achieving a more progressive policy platform to regulate the treatment
of asylum seekers. Right sources are concerned the left could push for
the complete unwinding of offshore processing.
Other points of conference controversy are expected to be a binding
vote in favour of marriage equality, and debate about the status of
Palestine.
The left faction is expected to oppose a push from the right to remove the socialist objective from the ALP platform.
Left sources also report significant frustration with Shorten’s
personal agenda on party reform. His proposals are regarded as
insufficiently ambitious.
In addition to the complication of whether or not the right faction
emerges with a working majority for the July conference, there’s a
further wildcard: many of this year’s conference flashpoints are
unlikely to be settled along strict factional lines.
A push to moderate Labor’s hardline policy on unauthorised boat
arrivals will be championed by the left but is also likely to win
support from elements of Labor’s Catholic right.
Any serious Palestine debate is also likely to attract
cross-factional support – with elements of the NSW right joining
left-wingers in being supportive of recognising the state of Palestine.
No comments:
Post a Comment